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On February 23, Germans were asked who they trust most to lead their country during the coming years and effectively manage current challenges, some of which outlined in this article.
Centre parties lose, radical-right AfD and far-right left parties win
To summarize, the parties of the previous ‘traffic-light coalition’ suffered significant losses. The liberal FDP failed to meet the 5% threshold and will not be represented in the new Bundestag. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) secured only 16.4% of the vote, marking its worst national elections results in 138 years of the party’s history. Meanwhile, the Christian Democratic CDU/CSU achieved a decisive victory with 28.5%, and its candidate, Friedrich Merz, is most likely to become Germany’s next chancellor, surpassing the SPD by 12 percentage points. However, the CDU/CSU had hoped for a result exceeding 30%.
The radical-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) almost doubled its vote share compared to 2021, further consolidating its hegemonic position in Eastern Germany where it garnered 32% of the votes. The far-left Die Linke also saw a significant rise, increasing from 3% in polls in early January to 8.8 % on Sunday. This surge is largely attributed to the party’s successful focus on social media and pressing social issues, such as housing. AfD and Die Linke have become particularly popular among voters under 25, gathering almost half of the votes in this demographic. Many commentators are warning that the new government represents Germany’s last chance to prevent the AfD from growing too large to be politically sidelined.
On a side note, the Greens secured 11.6%, down from 14.8% in 2021. The populist anti-establishment party BSW, which performed well in several elections throughout 2024, narrowly missed the 5% threshold, gathering 4.97%. Today, its party leaders announced they are considering challenging the election results, citing the slim margin and the fact that many Germans living abroad were unable to cast their vote because of the short run-up to the elections. Should they proceed and succeed with a lawsuit, it could lead to a significant period of uncertainty regarding the formation of a new German government.
In any case, the centre parties will not hold a two-thirds constitutional majority, which prevents them from reforming the debt brake to secure the necessary funding for external security and other pressing issues, such as the modernization of the infrastructure and support for the German economy. There is growing public debate over whether the current parliament should use its two-thirds majority to ensure that the incoming government is not financially paralyzed.
Implications for a new government
While there are some potential options for an arithmetic majority in the Bundestag, only one seems realistic. The CDU/CSU has ruled out a coalition with the radical-right AfD, and an alliance of CDU/CSU with both the Greens and the far-left party Die Linke is also highly unlikely. This leaves the possibility of a so-called Grand Coalition between the Christian Democratic CDU/CSU and the Social Democratic SPD. Current party leader Klingbeil and Minister of Defence Pistorius, both moderate social democrats, are speculated to take senior positions in the party. Chancellor Olaf Scholz had already announced that he would step down from senior positions within its party in the event of an election defeat.
Friedrich Merz has set the goal to finalize the formation of a new government coalition until Easter in late April. In the meantime, both Scholz and his likely successor, Merz announced to cooperate on the power transition, given the fundamental geopolitical shifts currently unfolding in Europe. Even if the two parties manage to keep up to this promise, Germany will have been without a stable government for almost 6 months.
There are hopes that the new government will be more stable and united, capable of implementing the necessary reforms. Since 2005, these two parties have formed a government coalition for a total of 12 years, carrying a significant share of responsibility for some of the challenges Germany is facing today.
The government‘s key challenge will be to restore Germany’s presence again on the international and European stage as the central issues of the economy, European defence and security and migration require a united European effort.