About the Author
On the day official results were announced, the Polish stock market opened with sharp losses–shares, the largest state-owned companies dropped by as much as 6–7%. However, most of those losses were clawed back by the end of the trading day. From election day through mid-June, the correction in the blue-chip WIG20 index amounts to less than 2%, and the Polish market remains among the top-performing globally this year. Investor sentiment reflects a broader view: Poland continues to offer a consistently attractive environment for business.
Chasing the dream: lower taxes, greater investment
Under the Polish Constitution, the president’s prerogatives are limited–giving Karol Nawrocki primarily the tools to slow down new government initiatives, but little real room to shape economic or foreign policy. As a result, the implementation of his campaign promises will have to wait until after the 2027 parliamentary elections. The Polish right finds itself at a strategic crossroads: between the continuation of family and pensioner-focused social transfers, and a more market-oriented agenda championed by younger voters–many of whom backed Sławomir Mentzen (Confederation). Nawrocki’s programme reflects this tension. It includes proposals to cut VAT to 22%, eliminate income tax for families with two children, abolish the capital gains tax, and introduce a blanket ban on new taxes. At the same time, it calls for a 33% surcharge on electricity bills and pension indexation above inflation. This fiscal mix risks amplifying budgetary pressures–already a major concern for the current government, which is facing the EU Council’s Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP). In the longer term, if a future government align more closely with Nawrocki, Poland could risk sliding back into a period of elevated inflation, which has now fallen to around 4% since the last parliamentary election.
Concrete fiscal proposals in Nawrocki’s programme are accompanied by vague, albeit aspirational, declarations regarding state-led investment in new technologies. A dedicated Fund for the Development of Breakthrough Technologies–covering AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, and pharmaceutical production–according to declaration would receive PLN 5 billion in public funding. These are sums many times larger than current state-backed investments in deep tech and appear to reflect the mood of the electorate. Poles no longer want to be known primarily for manufacturing white goods or car parts–they want to join the ranks of more advanced economies like Spain or Italy.
Between Brussels and Washington
The president is constitutionally obliged to coordinate with the government on foreign policy. While policy disagreements with Brussels may arise, on many key issues the positions of the previous and current governments remain aligned. Poland has consistently advocated limiting the access of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU common market, opposed the Mercosur agreement, and pushed for revisions to the Green Deal. Both Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President-elect Karol Nawrocki oppose mandatory refugee relocation within the EU, pointing out that Poland has already welcomed over one million Ukrainian refugees. The key point of divergence lies in their stance on the European Court of Justice (CJEU) ruling that struck down core elements of the disciplinary regime for judges introduced under the Law and Justice (PiS) government–ruling it incompatible with EU law. The European Commission subsequently unlocked €60 billion from the Next Generation EU fund after Poland submitted a plan to restore the rule of law. Today, the implementation of that plan remains uncertain, as the President has not explicitly commited to upholding its core reforms – potentially putting future disbursements at risk. However, despite disagreements on certain regulatory fronts, these positions underscore Warsaw’s active role in shaping – rather than distancing from – the EU’s economic and geopolitical agenda.
For nearly four decades, Poland’s relationship with the United States has been a cornerstone of its security policy–a true raison d’état. Regardless of whether the government leans liberal, conservative, or left-wing, Warsaw’s stance toward Washington has remained consistently friendly. In the election’s second round, both candidates highlighted the importance of strong US ties, differing only on how effectively they could engage with President Donald Trump. Karol Nawrocki met with Trump during the campaign and secured endorsements from lower-profile officials within the Trump administration at the Polish Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).
One pillar of Poland’s foreign policy can rest on the Tusk government’s strong ties with the European Commission, while the other should reflect Nawrocki’s presidential push to build better understanding with MAGA politicians. This dual approach can benefit Warsaw–provided effective coordination between the centres of power is achieved.
The strong showing in the first round–nearly 25%–for candidates expressing anti-Ukrainian sentiment signals a significant shift in public discourse, edging toward a possible softening of Poland’s traditionally unconditional support for Ukraine and Ukrainians. On this scale, such a stance is unprecedented in national politics. Nawrocki appears to align with this trend and, as a historian, is comfortable addressing sensitive and contested issues in Polish-Ukrainian relations dating back to World War II–such as the Volhynian Massacre.
Women’s and LGBT rights: no hope for a liberal u-turn
The current governing coalition owed much of its 2023 success to women’s votes and promises to ease the abortion restrictions imposed by the United Right (PiS) in 2020. Yet it failed to deliver – justifying this by the ongoing term of conservative President Andrzej Duda internal divisions over how far liberalisation should go. Karol Nawrocki’s victory all but extinguishes any realistic chance of advancing abortion rights in the near term. However, it also keeps the issue alive politically, potentially galvanizing the liberal-left electorate ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections.
Meanwhile, civil unions for same-sex couples remain a demand voiced loudly only by Poland’s fragmented left. The only plausible path forward lies in finding compromise with the Polish Peasant Party’s (PSL) “Next of Kin” bill–a proposal Nawrocki has partially endorsed–that could offer some legal recognition to same-sex couples. Yet this approach steers clear of full equality, maintaining a cautious and decidedly non-egalitarian framing of LGBT rights in Polish politics.
Aspirational course
A strong economy, a focus on technological progress, and a tilt toward the free market–balanced with national protectionism–combined with high military spending, close ties to the US and NATO as key allies, and effective pursuit of Poland’s interests within the European Union. These are priorities both the Prime Minister and the President could agree on. Yet, domestic political tensions risk overshadowing cooperation between the executive branches. For the Law and Justice (PiS) camp, Donald Tusk remains the eternal adversary–labelled by the President-elect during the campaign as the worst prime minister in democratic Poland’s history. The presidential palace will undoubtedly aim to set the stage for the right wing’s full return to power. Meanwhile, the governing coalition has two years to build momentum and offer Polish society more than just warm water policy.