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SEC Newgate Global Team
“We are not in an era of changes, but in a change of era”.
These were the words of Mario Walter Mauro – former Vice President of the European Parliament, former Italy’s Minister of Defence, founder of Meseuro, and member of SEC Newgate’s Global Corporate and Geopolitical Advisory Council – as he discussed the current global landscape during SEC Newgate’s panel ‘Redefining Public Affairs in a New Global Order’ at the PRovoke EMEA Summit 2025.
The conversation, led by Allie Renison – Associate Director at SEC Newgate UK and former policy adviser to the UK’s Secretary of State for Business and Trade – focused on the intricate interplay between economic, social, and political issues, and their impact on international relations.
Here are the key insights from the discussion.
A Change of Era
The world is experiencing a fundamental change of era, marked by geopolitical tensions and crisis that are undermining the effectiveness of the transatlantic relationship. Finland’s recent withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty – the international agreement that bans the use, production, and transfer of anti-personnel landmines – and the Polish government’s decision to increase the size of its army by 500,000 troops are unprecedented moves since World War II and mark a clear shift in the geopolitical landscape.
But if European Union and the European world seem so fragile and fragmented, why is President Trump so afraid of it? The answer is very simple: trade.
Trade is one domain where the EU holds primary competence. For example, beyond aluminium, the EU meets a specific demand for high-quality steel, which is crucial for key US industries like aerospace and the defence. Imposing tariffs on these materials may lead to a strong opposition from influential US stakeholders.
On the other hand, the EU is actively forging new commercial agreements with what Ursula Von Der Layen calls like-minded partners including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India. Significant among these partnerships are innovative free trade solutions focused on digital services and data markets, implemented with South Korea and Singapore, as well as Rapidus, the EU project aimed at expanding advanced semiconductors manufacturing capacity between Europe and Japan by 2026.
And then, there is China. The recent visit of the EU Commissioner for Trade, Maroš Šefčovič, in Beijing, is another signal of the EU Commission commitment to engage with all key commercial players willing to find a solution to US commercially aggressive trade policies.
However, despite ongoing trade disputes, the EU and US still remain close allies – a relationship that Mario Walter Mauro believes is “unlikely to change in the future”.
The Evolving EU-UK Relationship
Another relationship that is shifting is the one between the UK and the EU which has undergone significant changes over the years.
A relationship that was initially anchored on the principle of subsidiarity, a key pillar of the EPP’s political priorities and a fundamental counterbalance to the EU Commission’s hyper-regulatory approach, is now, after the Brexit, at a critical juncture. Indeed, while the UK-US relationship has remained relatively stable, the ties between London and Brussels have been strained.
With this perspective, it’s clear that an agreement on Brexit is not only necessary but also represents a major opportunity to restore the natural partnership between the two powers, particularly in the field of defence and security.
To achieve this, a new approach is needed—one that distances itself from the hyper-regulations that have characterized the EU Commission until now and is already starting to take root within the Union. An example of this shift is the recent Omnibus Package – an EU legislative proposal aimed at simplifying regulations on sustainability and corporate reporting – marking the beginning of a transformative phase within the EU Parliament, focused on adopting a more straightforward and streamlined policy-making process.
Moreover, initiatives such as the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) and the Coalition of the Willing proposed by the British government in support of Ukraine, set the right examples towards a greater defence autonomy. These efforts are not only enhancing the EU’s capabilities but also actively shaping the future architecture of European defence. By fostering collaboration and innovation, these initiatives are setting a strong foundation for a more secure and resilient Europe.
Considering these aspects, it is evident that the future of the European Union needs the UK. Indeed, the ability to defend democracies worldwide hinges also on the strong link between Brussels and London. Furthermore, the value of free trade must be a shared priority, as it is the only alternative to the misconception of the EU as merely a producer of homologation and the essential path to ensuring the future of freedom and economy.
Redefining Public Affairs in a New Global Order
All these shifts in international power dynamics and geopolitical relationships point to one conclusion: we are in a new global order.
With 56% of the world’s population living under authoritarian regimes, liberal democracies are constantly challenged, struggling to address major social and political issues. Meanwhile, autocracies are not only surviving but actively expanding and consolidating their control across the globe, supporting each other in times of crises. This is evident in the case of the Ukranian war, where the North Korea strategic support to the Russian army has become a crucial factor in Russia’s continued ability to sustain its war efforts.
In this complex and rapidly changing scenario, PA professionals are called upon to provide guidance and advice. This involves staying updated, offering effective public affairs strategies, and ensuring that clients understand the context in which we operate, as well as the reasoning behind our recommendations and decisions.
This is particularly important when it comes to trade which, in this context, can represent, as underlined by Mario Walter Mauro, “the right alternative to the logic of war and the right perspective to substitute the logic of peace”.
In other words, there is a strong connection between trade, geopolitics and war. A connection that was clearly visible with the introduction of two new EU strategic rules: the Digital Service Act (DSA) and the Digital Market Act (DMA). These Acts have had a significant impact on the US, particularly on major tech companies. In response, and under the framework of the Transatlantic Trade and Technology Council – a forum through which the United States and the European Union coordinate their approaches to global trade, economic, and technology challenges – a series of meetings were held in California to engage with Silicon Valley tech giants. Interestingly, it wasn’t just businesses representatives at the negotiation table – officials from the US Departments of State, and even members of the Pentagon, were also present.
A fitting example of how trade, geopolitics, and war are different faces of the same medal.
This unpredictability of the global scenario also poses significant challenges for organizations that need to constantly manage geopolitical frictions, fragmented media, and shifting economic and societal norms, while maintaining their reputation and influence in the market.
To support businesses navigating this new change of era, SEC Newgate has launched the Global Corporate and Geopolitical Advisory Council: an expanded network of influence – formed by trusted former ministers, regulators, policy experts, and communicators – offering strategic advice and counselling to clients, leaders and C-Suite members.
Discover how we can support your business: growth@secnewgate.com